Winners and losers of Black Friday 2023

Inflation has been a persistent challenge for retailers this year by creating cautious consumers. For weeks ahead of Black Friday, retailers have been encouraging consumers to spend on what is typically considered the busiest and most important day of the year for the industry.

“Retailers are seeing customers across the spectrum become more choiceful and discerning, which includes buying closer-to-need,” TD Cowen analysts led by Oliver Chen said in an emailed note regarding Black Friday.

In response to consumer reticence, retailers seemed to begin promoting their holiday shopping deals earlier than usual, with many major companies offering their deals over a month ahead of Black Friday.

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion online on Black Friday, according to data from Adobe Analytics. That’s up 7.5% from last year.

But even with record online spend, TD Cowen lowered its guidance for the season, now expecting holiday spend to be up 2% to 3%. Previously, the organization forecast an increase of 4% to 5%, while the National Retail Federation estimated holiday spend would be up between 3% to 4% year over year.

With life largely back to normal for most since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as of publication time, only a few issues had emerged. Early Friday morning, American Dream, one of the largest malls in the U.S., was briefly evacuated for a bomb threat. Operations at the New Jersey mall returned to normal following a law enforcement investigation, which determined there was no imminent threat, Gov. Phil Murphy said in a social media post. Mall representatives did not immediately respond to Retail Dive’s request for comment about the situation.

And some also chose Black Friday and major shopping destinations to make a statement about geopolitical events. Crowds gathered at shopping centers in several major U.S. cities to protest the Israel-Hamas War.

For retailers that didn’t see the performance or engagement they expected, there are likely plenty of good days ahead before the holiday season wraps up, according to Michael Brown, partner and Americas Retail Leader at Kearney.

“Never underestimate the consumer,” Brown said. “They’ve been very resilient. They will shop. They have obligations to family and other loved ones that they’re going to fulfill the gift list for. If not now, it will get busy out there — be ready, they’ll be coming.”

Here’s a look at some of what’s happened so far during one of the industry’s most important days of the year.